Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US continued claims, week ending Aug 1 2026
What will the U.S. Department of Labor first report for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment, also called continued claims, for the week ending August 1, 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI1.8M
1.7M1.8M1.8M
history:2026-07-11 SA insured unemployment, latest first-print level: 1.8M2026-07-04 SA insured unemployment: 1.8M2026-06-27 SA insured unemployment: 1.8M2026-07-11 four-week moving average: 1.8M2025 comparable week prior-year level: 1.9M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-25T15:54:22Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 25, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print
Key drivers
- Latest continued claims are below their four-week average
- July 18 initial claims fell sharply, lowering near-term inflow risk
- Recent 2026 continued-claims changes are noisy but centered near flat
- Target uses the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment variant only
Resolution
- source
- ALFRED/FRED CCSA advance vintage mirror of the U.S. Department of Labor ETA Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims first print
- expected
- August 13, 2026
- rule
- Resolve through the ledger-bound ALFRED advance vintage for CCSA, which mirrors the first official DOL ETA UI Weekly Claims print for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 1, 2026. Use the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment count for regular state programs, divide the persons count by 1,000,000 to express millions, and ignore later revisions. The canonical expected release window is 2026-08-11 through 2026-08-15; the official DOL schedule indicates the relevant weekly release date is Thursday, 2026-08-13.
- Data point
- dol.eta.continued_claims.sa.week_2026-08-01.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.